Back to papers
lesswrong9.0 / 10

Mechanistic estimation for expectations of random products

Jacob_Hilton

Abstract

We have developed some relatively general methods for mechanistic estimation competitive with sampling by studying problems that are expressible as expectations of random products . This includes several different estimation problems, such as random halfspace intersections, random #3-SAT and random permanents. In this post, we will give a high-level introduction to these methods before sharing some more detailed notes . This is intended as an interim technical update and will be relatively light on motivation: for a broader discussion of this line of research, see our prior post . Random instances of the matching sampling principle All of the problems discussed in this post can be thought of particular choices of "architecture" mjx-container[jax="CHTML"] { line-height: 0; } mjx-container [space="1"] { margin-left: .111em; } mjx-container [space="2"] { margin-left: .167em; } mjx-container [space="3"] { margin-left: .222em; } mjx-container [space="4"] { margin-left: .278em; } mjx-container [space="5"] { margin-left: .333em; } mjx-container [rspace="1"] { margin-right: .111em; } mjx-container [rspace="2"] { margin-right: .167em; } mjx-container [rspace="3"] { margin-right: .222em; } m

Research area

interpretabilitymodel infrastructuretheories and proofs
Published
15 May 2026
Source
lesswrong
Org
Alignment Forum
View paper
Sign in to read and join the discussion.